Sports: NFL

[Matt Helm]

You can quote Beligenius or link me to any nerd analysis you want but you will never convince me that it wasn't a bad play call. Say what you want about managing clock, working for three plays instead of two, or whatever you might but basically nothing about those play calls in the final drive support any of it.

On 2nd and 10 from the 50 with just under 2 minutes left they went for a bomb to score on that play. It was an under thrown floater and could have been picked off. I believe in stretching the field but that play seemed uncalled for to me. And if they did make it, the Pats would have had an eternity with the ball so that kills any clock management theories.

I can buy that the game changed so maybe using up clock wasn't yet on their mind. In fact it certainly wasn't because after getting the first down they immediately tried it again from the forty and somehow completed the luckiest pass in bowl history. Again it could have been picked because the receiver was covered.

So now they have the ball inside the 5 and Lynch runs it easily for 4. Did they tell him to get tackled on the one so that they could waste more clock? No, they would have rightfully scored the TD there. So I tell you, with nearly a minute left why did they now switch to focusing more on wasting clock than scoring 7?

For some reason, they wasted the entire play clock setting up that final play with a shotgun formation. It was totally insane. Sometimes it is OK to be conventional and then challenge the other team to beat you. If they marched up to the line and wanted to run it right through with Lynch, they probably have all three downs to do it.

They could have even tried a pass on third and thrown it out of the end zone if they didn't get what they wanted only to try the Lynch run for all the marbles on fourth down on the game's final play. The point is, everyone who has ever understood what they were watching in a football game knew that running with Lynch on 2nd and 1 was THE play.

I believe that they were sloppy passing the ball during the whole drive and were lucky to be there. They took too many chances and it caught up with them. You'll just never convince me otherwise.

[dok]

Originally Posted by Matt Helm

You can quote Beligenius or link me to any nerd analysis you want but you will never convince me that it wasn't a bad play call.

I just want to point out that the well-reasoned "nerd analysis" says it was a bad call. Only cherry-picked statistics can suggest otherwise, and that doesn't rate as analysis in my book. Let's not give nerd analysis a bad name here.

[XDVincent]

Originally Posted by dok

I just want to point out that the well-reasoned "nerd analysis" says it was a bad call. Only cherry-picked statistics can suggest otherwise, and that doesn't rate as analysis in my book. Let's not give nerd analysis a bad name here.

I just wanted to point out that anaytics, which apparently is the new thing every team does, says to pass there. Obviously its common sense to run it, and having a player like Lynch skews the statistics.

[Drewman-chu]

Something else to consider about Darrell Bevell’s play-call from the 1-yard-line: Seattle had only one timeout and 26 seconds left, so they had to throw on one of their remaining three downs. It’s impossible to run three times in that situation. Bevell chose to pass on the first of his remaining three downs, knowing that an incompletion would stop the clock. And Bevell didn’t just flip to a random page in his playbook. The Seahawks had a very specific pass design in place for a goal-line situation. Unfortunately—and this is what should be remembered—the Patriots were ready for it.

That is from MMQB and I think it sums it up the best. A incomplete pass still leaves time and options, a stuffed run on 2nd leaves you with limited choices. Belicheck made a very good point too.

[Dad_Scaper]

It is incorrect that they would necessarily have had to pass. You assume they would not have gotten a touchdown, but why should you make that assumption, when the ground game is going well? Why start with your weakest option, when your best is available and will likely get the touchdown?


It is also incorrect to assume that a stuffed run was as likely as an incomplete pass. After all, incomplete passes were far more frequent than Lynch losing yards, right? It is also incorrect that *this* pass, from this set and this personnel package, was as likely to succeed as any *other* pass. The Patriots were ready for it, to be sure, but that's because the Seahawks were in a shotgun set with three wide.

It is certain that this was a prepared play. It is likewise certain that this was a foolish time to run it. The accusation that critics are employing hindsight implies that it was a coin flip what might have worked best, but that's simply not the case: Lynch had been very strong, and is a terrific goal line back, and there was simply no excuse for not even threatening a power running play.

But why am I arguing this point with Patriots fans?

[Hahma]

Didn't they kind of waste a lot of time before that pass play? I remember wondering if Belichick was going to call a time-out and just waited while the time ticked down. So if Seattle didn't have time to run three times, who's fault is that? They were the ones wasting time for whatever reason.

Personally, I would have run the ball.

But...even going by Bevell's reasoning for passing it, why throw it into a very crowded area of the endzone? Congestion can cause issues, as well as a defensive lineman getting his hands up and deflecting it enough for another defensive player to intercept it. If he had to throw it on 2nd down, why not do so with a play to either side of the field, or a bootleg where Wilson could throw it, run with it, or throw it the heck away.

So to me, they can rationalize passing all they want on 2nd down. But I don't see how they can rationalize that passing play. That play would seem more viable outside the 5 yard line. But what the heck do I know.

Ultimately, I'm glad they did choose that play because I wanted the Seahawks to lose. So it worked out

[Killometer]

Some parts of the internet (that loveable expert!) reasons that Carroll et al were expecting Belichick to follow conventional wisdom and call a timeout there to save time for a run at a game tying/winning drive. When he didn't they suddenly found themselves running out of time on the play clock and game clock, and called a panic play without taking the time to consider its potential ramifications.

Originally Posted by Hahma

Ultimately, I'm glad they did choose that play because I wanted the Seahawks to lose. So it worked out

+1

[dok]

Originally Posted by XDVincent

I just wanted to point out that anaytics, which apparently is the new thing every team does, says to pass there. Obviously its common sense to run it, and having a player like Lynch skews the statistics.

"Analytics" does not say this. Some cherry picked small sample-size stats seem to suggest it. Broader analyses suggest that running is the more effective play there.

Most analyses have led to the conclusion that, in general, teams should pass more, and teams should be FAR more aggressive on 4th downs. Neither of these things are especially relevant here.

Originally Posted by Hahma

Didn't they kind of waste a lot of time before that pass play? I remember wondering if Belichick was going to call a time-out and just waited while the time ticked down. So if Seattle didn't have time to run three times, who's fault is that? They were the ones wasting time for whatever reason.

Indeed. All this talk about what you can do with 26 seconds is a total smokescreen (although, again, running two plays in that time is hardly impossible).

If you hate the run up the middle, then run on the edge, possibly with an option play. But keep the clock running, and keep the ball on the ground unless you get a blown coverage.

[Kinseth]

There was over a minute to go on the clock when Lynch was tackled at the one. Plenty of time to run it again, line back up and run it again with your time out for 4th down.

[Killometer]

IF you line up and go, instead of trying to out gamesmanship Coach Robochik and running out of time.

[Kinseth]

I find that the idea of trying to leave no time left really comical. You can't trust your vaunted amazing , best if all time , legion if boom defense to stop them with 30-minute left. They simply overthought the problem and suffered for it.

[Dad_Scaper]

Well, I hope all you NFC North fans enjoy rooting for or against Haloti Ngata. He was a stand-up guy in Baltimore. I never saw stories about him acting like a goof when he wasn't playing, and he always gave 100%. He is *unbelievably* athletic for a man his size. He can jump, he can run, he can make the pick when the ball is there for the catching.

On the other hand, he lost 4 weeks to a suspension for (supposedly) Adderall, which means he's in The Program, and if he gets hit with another it'll be big. I'm inclined to believe it was Adderall, but you never really know. Speaking of big, for a man his size, he's been pretty durable. That won't last forever, of course, and I hope he has a few good years left in the tank to keep you entertained.

Thanks for the picks, Detroit! We need 'em!