The Mind Flayer Paradox
 

Hello all,

I have no strategy article today so I put together something to get everyone thinking about the New Mind Flayer

The Mind Flayer Paradox

You have placed all your OM's on the Mind Flayer this round hoping to remove all your opponents Order makers. You look at your Opponents order markers A, B, C, and D all on the 4th Mass.

Suppose You have just successfully Psionic Blasted a 4th mass figure, and get to remove a OM from a choice of Four Order makers. Of course one is the X OM; and the others are OM 1, 2, and 3. Your opponent is going to give you a boost by showing you one of the order marker that is not OM 1, but you must choose which one you will remove first.

You pick an OM, say "A", hoping it is OM 1 (which would rob your opponent of their first turn), and your opponat shows you another OM, say D, which is OM 3. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick OM B or C instead?"

Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Re: The Mind Flayer Paradox
 

yes, it is.
When theres three order markers left for you to choose, there is a 33% chance it is in any one of them. Then, when you choose OM A, theres a 33% chance its OM 1, and a 66% chance that OM 1 is in one of the other two OM's. Your opponent is going to show you an order marker that is not OM1, and not the one you've chosen. When he/she gives you the oppertunity to switch, there is still a 33% chance its the one youve already chosen, and a 66% its in one of the other two, which has now been eliminated down to just one.

Re: The Mind Flayer Paradox
 

Re: The Mind Flayer Paradox
 

No it is not. Though your odds of hitting OM1 are higher, your odds of hitting OMX are higher as well. On your first pick you had a 75% chance to hit a valid OM. The switch drops that to 67%. Reducing your chance of removing a viable OM in order to increase your chance of getting a "better" OM just doesn't make any sense.

~Aldin, running the numbers

Re: The Mind Flayer Paradox
 

Actually, Thatguy is right.

This is a classic question that has been around game shows for years! Very clever, wriggs!

Re: The Mind Flayer Paradox
 

Aldin is 100% correct. Those of you saying he is wrong are assuming this is identical to the classic problem, in stead of thinking critically about what he wrote and actually doing out the probability.

If your goal is to get the "1", you should switch. That's the classic Monty Hall problem.

If your goal is to NOT get the "X", you should not switch. And since that should be your goal, don't switch. It's a "reverse Monty Hall" problem, if you will.

Re: The Mind Flayer Paradox
 

You want OM 1. There's a 25% chance it's the first one you picked, and a 75% chance it's one of the other three. He reveals one of the other three that is not OM 1. That means that the remaining two each have a 37.5% chance of being OM1, while your original choice still has only a 25% chance. BUT the odds of any of them being OM X is only 33.3%. Why you ask? It's because the OM he revealed was not randomly chosen. If he randomly chose the OM, and it wasn't OM 1, there'd be no advantage to switching. But he specifically chose one that wasn't OM1. That isn't true for OM X. I probably did a terrible job of explaining that, and wouldn't be surprised if someone ninja'd me with a better explanation, but I'm pretty sure I'm correct.

Re: The Mind Flayer Paradox
 

Isn't that more of a 'conundrum?'

I always thought Paradox was something that somehow trapped itself in a loop of nonsense-ery.

Like:

The Sentence Below is True.
The Sentence Above is False.

Maybe I'm thinking of something else.

Re: The Mind Flayer Paradox
 

It's true that if your opponent is willing to reveal the "X", that there's an advantage to switching (assuming you prefer the "1"). However, it seems ridiculous to think your opponent would reveal the "X".

Re: The Mind Flayer Paradox
 

This situation is a bit different from the Monty Hall problem, because there is a gradient of "wins," not just a win or lose. Getting the 1 order marker is valued higher than the 2 or 3. However, as Aldin said, gettin a 3 OM is much better than an X, so switching doesn't make sense.

On a side note, I don't know why you would put 3 OMs on a Mind Flayer, unless you have some huge initiative advantage.

Re: The Mind Flayer Paradox
 

Thanks dok,

Think of it as Monty Hall with three cars and a goat. One car is nicer than the others, but you really, really don't want the goat. Having a car revealed increases your chances of getting the goat if you switch. Stay with the pick you made and you are more likely to have a car - even if it's the BMW instead of the Porsche.

~Aldin, drivingly

Re: The Mind Flayer Paradox
 

Ah, I get it!
I wasn't thinking that way! :oops: